Banking Industry

Causal Intelligence for
Financial Risk & Fraud

UM-Model 1 distinguishes genuine credit risk from demographic bias, detects fraud through causal patterns, and optimizes lending decisions by understanding true financial causality.

38%
Improvement in Default Prediction
72%
Reduction in Fraud False Positives
$4.5M
Annual Fraud Prevention
15%
Increase in Loan Approvals

Credit Risk: Bias vs True Risk

Why causal reasoning enables fair lending

Generic Predictive AI

Pattern Matching

Approach

Observes: "Applicants from ZIP code 10001 have 30% higher default rate"

Conclusion

Deny loans or charge higher rates for all 10001 applicants ✗

Problem

Confounding! High defaults caused by economic downturn in that area, not inherent borrower risk. Creates discriminatory lending.

$2.1M
Lost Revenue from Denied Good Borrowers

UM-Model 1

Causal Reasoning

Approach

Builds causal graph: Economic Conditions → Defaults, Payment History → Risk, Location → Economic Conditions

Counterfactual Analysis

"What would default risk be if economic conditions normalized?" Identifies true borrower risk

Conclusion

Assess based on payment behavior and income stability, not location. Fair lending increases approvals 15% ✓

$4.5M
Additional Revenue from Fair Assessment

Financial Risk Analysis

Explore causal factors in banking operations

Select Analysis Type

Causal Risk Factors

Real Banking Outcomes

Proven results from financial institutions

Credit Decisions

Generic AI 76% Accuracy
UM-Model 1 92% Accuracy

Separated causal payment behavior from demographic correlations. Increased approvals 15% while reducing defaults 12%

Fraud Detection

Generic AI 58% False Alarms
UM-Model 1 16% False Alarms

Causal analysis distinguished unusual but legitimate transactions from actual fraud patterns. Saved $4.5M annually

Churn Prediction

Generic AI 68% Accuracy
UM-Model 1 87% Accuracy

Identified causal dissatisfaction factors vs correlated life events. Targeted interventions reduced churn 24%

Investment Risk

Generic AI 14% Error
UM-Model 1 4% Error

Separated market correlation from causal risk factors. Portfolio optimization improved returns 18%

Default Rate Prediction Accuracy

Credit Risk Assessment Tool

Analyze loan applications with causal modeling

Applicant Parameters

680
$75,000
$25,000

Causal Risk Analysis

Adjust parameters and click "Run Analysis" to see credit assessment