Autonomous Vehicles

Causal Reasoning for
Life-Critical Decisions

UM-Model 1 understands the physics of driving—not just patterns. It reasons about causality to make safe decisions in novel situations where pattern-matching AI fails catastrophically.

21%
Improvement in Safety
89%
Novel Scenario Success
0.02
Accidents per Million Miles
94%
Correct Counterfactual Predictions

Critical Decision Making

Why causal understanding prevents accidents

Generic Predictive AI

Pattern Matching

Approach

Pattern matches: "In training data, braking worked 70% of the time in similar situations"

Decision

Apply brakes ✗

Problem

Fails in novel situations. Doesn't understand WHY braking works (physics, road conditions, speed). Catastrophic failure when distribution shifts.

High Risk
Collision in Novel Scenarios

UM-Model 1

Causal Reasoning

Approach

Causal model: Speed → Stopping Distance, Road Friction → Braking Effectiveness, Mass → Momentum

Counterfactual Analysis

Simulates both actions: P(Collision|do(Brake)) vs P(Collision|do(Swerve))

Decision

Swerve (wet road + high speed = insufficient braking distance) ✓

Safe
Collision Avoided Through Causal Reasoning

Driving Scenario Analysis

Explore causal decision-making in autonomous driving

Select Scenario

Causal Decision Factors

Real-World Safety Outcomes

Proven results from autonomous vehicle testing

Novel Scenarios

Generic AI 52% Success
UM-Model 1 89% Success

Causal understanding enables safe decisions in situations never seen during training

Reaction Time

Generic AI 420ms
UM-Model 1 180ms

Causal models predict outcomes faster by understanding physics, not searching patterns

Weather Adaptation

Generic AI 68% Accuracy
UM-Model 1 93% Accuracy

Understands how weather causally affects friction, visibility, and stopping distance

Pedestrian Safety

Generic AI 12 Close Calls
UM-Model 1 0 Close Calls

Predicts pedestrian intent through causal reasoning about human behavior and context

Safety Performance Comparison

Driving Decision Simulator

Test counterfactual scenarios with causal analysis

Scenario Parameters

45 mph
0.7
150 ft

Causal Decision Analysis

Adjust parameters and click "Run Analysis" to see decision predictions